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Climate change impacts India. Predicted horror story Agriculture India could suffer a decline of 9 million tonnes in cereal production. In northwest India, though higher yields are projected for rice and wheat if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere increase, a 3°C and 2°C rise in temperature (for wheat and rice respectively) nearly cancels out this positive effect. Production will go down if water shortage is taken into account. Similarly, models suggest that soybean production in the country will go up by 50 per cent if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double. But if rainfall decreases significantly and temperature increases, production could go down by 6 per cent. This will severely affect a state like Madhya Pradesh, which produces 72 per cent of soybean grown in India, and has 77 per cent of its area devoted to soybean farming.
Pest populations will increase, negatively affecting agriculture. Health Rise in minimum winter temperature will result in mosquitoes, carrying malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and several types of encephalitis to hitherto cooler climates and higher altitudes. Warmer climes also speeds up the life cycle of mosquitoes and make adult mosquitoes bite more often. Prey-predator relationships like that of frogs and mosquitoes may break down, leading to an increase in vector numbers. Waterborne diseases including cholera and diarrhoeal diseases will increase as rainfall patterns change, restricting human access to water supplies and sanitation. Global warming will increase the incidence of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in arid and semi-arid parts of India. Water resourcesRainfall may decline by 5 to 25 per cent in Indian winters, causing droughts during dry summer months. The onset of the summer monsoon over central India could vary in future. 
If rainfall decreases, water availability will decrease across the country. Water pollution will worsen — an increase in temperature will lead to increased eutrophication in wetlands and freshwater supplies. Himalayan glaciers, which keep major Indian rivers perennial, are shrinking. This is why the Bhakra Dam overflowed in summer this year, despite very little rainfall. The Pindari glacier is retreating at a rate of 13 metres a year while the Gangotri glacier is receding at an annual rate of 30 metres. Glacial melting at this rate increases the risk of flash floods. BiodiversityAs temperatures rise, species which cannot adapt will go extinct, while others will migrate to new locations under changing climatic conditions. The Rann of Kutch in India supports large Greater Flamingo colonies. With sea level rise, these salt marshes and mudflats will submerge, decreasing their habitat, and that of lesser floricans. About 2000 Indian wild asses in the Rann of Kutch could lose their only habitat.
One tenth of the world’s known species of higher altitude plants and animals occur in the Himalayas. With global warming, species will shift to higher elevations. For species already at their maximum altitude, extinction seems a distinct possibility. Severe coral bleaching will occur all along the Indian coast as a result of seawater warming. Global warming is already contributing to the decline of mangrove forests. Coastal areas The Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the coral atolls of the Lakshadweep archipelago are most vulnerable. West Bengal and Maharashtra face real danger, as also the Lakshadweep group of islands where the entire population is at risk. Most of the area likely to be lost in West Bengal includes the Sunderban mangrove swamps, already variously degraded, and reserved forests. Coastal erosion will increase substantially. Coastal fishing communities will be affected.
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Copyright © Centre for Science and Environment
