THE KP GAME
By Gurmit Singh
 The
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) has become a great game between the Russian bear
and the EU/Japan, very much reminiscent of the Great Game played between the same bear and
the British bulldog in the late 19th century over Northwest India &
Afghanistan. Of course, the new entrant is Uncle Sam, whom everyone is trying to cajole
& pacify.
One can only speculate why the Russians,
including President Putin, are trying to keep the world on tenterhooks, even at CoP-9. It
is perhaps an attempt to mollify the imperial Bush on their lack of enthusiasm for the
Iraq invasion and occupation. Or they can be trying to squeeze out concessions (including
monetary ones from the EU and Japan). Or they are maybe trying to demonstrate what an
important role they play in addressing global climate change.
But this gaming is NOT benefiting the
worldwide attempts to curb global warming. In fact, it seems to be part of a sinister
conspiracy to delay long enough any reductions by Annex I nations, until the big non-Annex
I nations like India, China & Brazil reach emission levels that equal or exceed those
of USA, EU or Japan – then these will be the nations to be blamed for inaction by
Annex I nations.
It seems odd that non-Annex I nations are
not putting enough pressure on the bear to get the KP ratified, at least by CoP-9, while
many of them are scrambling over each other to get the crumbs of CDM. Is it the
disappearing ODA that is causing them to behave in this strange way – when they
should know that without the KP in force there is no legal future for any CDM project? The
quick-start option may be nothing more than a false start!
Uncle Sam has been busy sending
delegations to many countries, including Malaysia, to hoodwink the world into believing
that their so-called unilateral reductions in 2012 will match KP targets. Only the most
gullible will be fooled into believing that 18 per cent reduction below 2012 emission
levels for USA will be anywhere near their emission levels of 1990! American emission
levels, like those for most developed countries, have been growing ever since 1990 –
they have not even stabilised. That is why the very broad objectives of UNFCCC remain
unattained.
The G77 needs to get its act together and
become proactive in Milan. It must avoid the deadlock it developed in India during CoP-8.
As real evidence of the EU and other developed nations acting to meet their KP targets
becomes clear, the non-Annex I nations must be willing to signal their political readiness
to discuss the slowing down of their own emission growths, in keeping with the common but
differentiated responsibility principle.
Developing countries cannot run away from
the fact that at the present rate of emission growth, their combined emissions are
projected to overtake those from OECD members within the next 20 years. The denial mode
will not serve any good purpose – only move us closer to the runaway situation in
terms of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
But they should also push even harder for
Annex I nations (including Uncle Sam) to fulfil UNFCCC’s financial and technology
transfer commitments. These are not KP hostage issues but have been on the table for more
than a decade! The failure of EU and its friends to act positively and decisively on these
two issues is perhaps the single largest obstacle for most G77 nations to even consider
setting caps on their emissions.
The stalemate needs to be broken!
Otherwise the cycle of recycled speeches and positions will be repeated in Milan. Trust
and a commitment to curb global warming must resurface during the negotiations. All hue
and cry about multilateralism triumphing over unilateralism in Bonn a couple of years ago
needs to be translated into tangible action NOW, not after it has been totally destroyed
by the tricks of Uncle Sam.
Otherwise, one may wonder whether
travelling thousands of kilometres and staying in yet another expensive city have been
another waste of resources!
Gurmit Singh is Climate Action Network South-East Asia Coordinator
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