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-- Sunita Narain
Editor, Down To Earth

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LATEST FROM DOWN TO EARTH MAGAZINE
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COPING WITH URBAN WASTE
Common effluent treatment plants to manage urban waste are
fashionable, but without a proper framework of rights and
responsibilities of urban commons, they could become a tool
for circumventing the law
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/cover_nl.asp?mode=1
NOTE: 'Down To Earth' magazine subscribers only

THE BATTLE OVER FORESTS: WHO IS THE REAL
ENCROACHER?
A murky battle rages on inside India's forests and courtrooms.
Are the recent drives to evict forest dwellers misdirected?
And is the government the real encroacher? A special
DOWN TO EARTH probe
Read the complete article online:
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/cover_nl.asp?mode=2

DON'T GIVE UP THE FIGHT
I smelt the air of Ahmedabad city this week. It took me back to
the time when Delhi's air was much the same. When breathing was
like wheezing, and everyone complained about constantly feeling
ill. Delhi is a little better now. The air has less poison. But
it was like a diseased city then. Now Ahmedabad, it seems to me,
has taken over this dubious distinction. Or should I say Pune or
Kolkata or Hyderabad - all fighting for the pollution top spot?
This when we know pollution is not a benign growth. It is a fast
growing cancer. Toxic and deadly.

The entire Ahmedabad district, I was shocked to find out, has
only some 1 million vehicles. Hyderabad district has some 1.2
million, Pune district even less - 0.9 million. Shocked because
Delhi city has some 2.6 million vehicles on the road today. As
per monitoring data of the Central Pollution Control Board
CPCB), the levels of respirable suspended particulate matter
(RSPM) - ambient tiny toxins - is higher in Hyderabad than
Delhi. Ahmedabad has caught up with Delhi. Less than half the
vehicles, but the same or higher levels of pollution.

It could be that there are other reasons for air pollution in
these cities. Nobody knows. Because nobody has cared to find out.
But it is clear that vehicles belch smoke, and in larger and
larger quantities than ever. In any case, why want to rediscover
what we already know? We know that in Delhi, cleaning up vehicles
has considerably cleaned up the air. Vehicles are a problem. How
much is a relative issue.

But there is also a lesson for Delhi. If pollution is like cancer,
then Delhi is not a 'survivor' as yet. It has only got a temporary
remission, as our 'Anil Agarwal Clean Air Model' shows.

We developed this model to help us understand what the pollution
load in the city due to vehicles was, and what would be the impact
of a given policy intervention on pollution levels. It helps us to
set the road map for future action - to see what will work and how
much.

This model is based on various parameters and we have worked hard
to get the numbers right. We use what data exists and then work
with it to refine it, based on what experience exists. We found
it fascinating. Because one always comes across things one doesn't
know anything about. We learnt, for instance, that there is really
no reliable estimate of the number of vehicles on our roads today.
So, how do you design policy? The registration data cumulatively
adds vehicles from the date the register exists. Why? Because
it never registers a vehicle that has been phased out.

A case readymade for mischief, if any. Produce vehicles or make
them disappear if they suit the policy maker. The Central Road
Research Institute, which prepared the base paper for the
government's proposed Auto Fuel Policy has decided that it would
suit its masters to show a clean and small fleet in the city. It
uses some esoteric formula, checks up on a few vehicles on the
road, and proclaims that Delhi in fact has less than 2 million
vehicles on the road. It calmly halves the number of polluting
two-wheelers in the city. Poof! Gone; problem has disappeared!

Our model takes an alternative route. It works to phase out
vehicles from the registration data based on an age limit. It
does not end up halving the population. Roughly 30 per cent is
knocked off the list. We then look at the age of vehicles and
their emissions profile - the emissions of each type of vehicle
per km travelled per year; how much do these vehicles travel each
year by different estimates; what is the deterioration factor
(emissions will increase as wear and tear increases); and other
factors.

When we did this, we found that the first sum was that we are in
a zero sum game. All gains made to reduce air pollution in the
city would be lost in the coming years, as vehicles continued
to grow. The second sum we found out was not such a bad one.

Let me explain. With this model in place, we can also now
estimate what is possible. What needs to be done to reduce air
pollution? We can quantify the impacts, and so venture a serious
answer to this question. What would make the difference? Getting
rid of vehicles, of course. Controlling numbers of private
vehicles and phasing out old vehicles.

We did not need a model to tell us this. But where the model
came into its own was in helping us to devise alternative policies
and prescriptions for best results. If we cannot get rid of old
cars, will moving these vehicles to cleaner fuel help? If so,
how much? If we cannot get rid of two-wheelers, and have no options
to convert these into cleaner fuel, then will advancing the
emission norms of new two-wheelers help? If so, by how much? Would
it be better to phase in zero-emission two-wheelers like battery
driven vehicles? Or if we devised an effective inspection system to
check the deterioration of vehicles on roads, would it help? By how
much?

A powerful tool is also an enabling one. It helps us push for
informed and knowledge-based governance on pollution management.
Anil thought about this model because he wanted a tool for decision-
making. But equally not a tool designed only for decision-makers. This
is what we have today.

But it is only as effective as the action we take to push for
change. One thing is crystal clear. The pace of pollution will
overtake us if we give up the fight. The choice has to be ours.
Are you listening, Ahmedabad, Pune, Kolkata - all other Indian
cities, big or small?

- Sunita Narain

Read this editorial online:
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/cover_nl.asp?mode=3

WRITE TO THE EDITOR: editor@downtoearth.org.in

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