August 10th, 2001

The Numbers game

Russia, Japan, Canada and Australia hold the key to the Kyoto Protocol's entry into force in the absence of the US.

The Kyoto Protocol can enter into force only when the protocol is ratified by:
a)    at least 55 countries which are parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including
b)    industrialised countries with emissions reduction commitments, called annex I countries, whose
total emissions account for at least 55 per cent of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of all annex I countries
   
In 1990, the US accounted for 36 per cent of the industrialised country emissions. Making the protocol work without the US means finding countries to make up 55 per cent of the emissions. The EU (with Switzerland) accounts for roughly one fourth. Unexpected help is coming from Ukraine with roughly 2.5 per cent emissions, which was earlier missing. The Kyoto Protocol specifies that emissions from only those countries would be counted which communicated the amount on or before the protocol was adopted. Ukraine communicated its 1990 emissions after the adoption, and therefore, including it in the calculation will require an agreement by all countries.

The options to make the protocol work, therefore, are:
a)    The EU (with Switzerland) 24.5 per cent + Norway
0.3 per cent + Russia 17.4 per cent + Economies in Transition (EITs) 7.4 per cent + Japan 8.5 per cent = 58.1 per cent

b)    EU (with Switzerland) 24.5 per cent + Norway 0.3 per cent + Russia 17.4 per cent + EITs 7.4 per cent + Canada 3.3 per cent + Australia 2.1 per cent = 55 per cent

c)    EU (with Switzerland) 24.5 per cent + Norway 0.3 per cent + Russia 17.4 per cent + EITs 7.4 per cent + Canada 3.3 per cent + Ukraine 2.5 per cent = 55.4 per cent
   
Therefore, it is essential that besides EU, Russia and all countries in transition:
a)    Japan ratifies the protocol, or
b)    Canada and Australia ratify, or
c)    Canada and Ukraine ratify.

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