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There now exists a tug-of-war between the developed nations, which are not so vulnerable
to climate change, and the developing nations, which are extremely vulnerable. The
industrialised nations are unwilling to water down their lifestyle and are resistant to
taking on the expenses of shifting to a low-carbon economy and on the other hand, the
industrialising nations are unwilling to freeze their growth and are resistant to taking
rich nations' emission-reducing burden.4 Right from the beginning of the
Protocol, the US had demanded equal participation from developing countries, especially
India and China, saying it would sign the Protocol only if these countries did so. At the
recent eighth Conference of Parties (CoP-8) held in New Delhi in October 2002, the US
however refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol even if India and China signed it, arguing
that each developing country should develop its own response to climate change, making a
complete U-turn to its earlier stance on climate change.5 And so the war goes on, while the
world continues to warm up more and more.The most disturbing part is that no one really
knows as of now how much warming will occur, how fast will it occur, and what will it be
its real adverse effects. What remains a mystery is how much the impact will be within a
specific given location. Sophisticated computer models which will help predict how things
may change in smaller places, have yet to be developed. The World Report on Disasters
2002, cautions on the increase in the number of floods, earthquakes and volcanoes in
the coming year. Between 1992 and 1996, around 75 floods were reported annually, globally.
Compare this to 2001, wherein for the second year in running, the number was above 1506 (see
box: Nature games).
| Nature games |
| Climate
change is irreversible. Though no one knows how the climate will respond, it is certain
that increase in GHGs could lead to a sharp rise in global temperatures. |
Projected
climate change scenario |
| Year |
Ground level ozone concentration parts
per million (ppm) |
Carbon dioxide concentration
(ppm) |
Global temperature change (°C) |
Global sea-level rise (cm) |
| 1990 |
- |
354 |
0 |
0 |
| 2000 |
40 |
367 |
0.2 |
2 |
| 2050 |
-60 |
463-623 |
0.8-2.6 |
5-32 |
| 2100 |
>70 |
478-1099 |
1.4-5.8 |
9-88 |
Source: IPCC- Third Assessment
Report 2001, Climate change 2001 impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, Contribution of
working group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, p 27. |
A many–faced monster
The increase in global surface temperatures has serious consequences for India. The
geographical location of India makes it very vulnerable to climate change and the country
is likely to suffer damage to agriculture, food and water security, human health and
coastal population.7
The sad part is that the Indian government does not see climate change as an issue
warranting immediate attention. Shreekant Gupta, professor at Delhi School of Economics
admits, "Climate change in some ways is perceived as a distant issue. There is hardly
any interface between the scientists and the policy makers to think of strategies to
mitigate this impending catastrophe."
Norman Myers, from the University of Oxford, UK, says,
"In the last 10 years, India has incurred a loss of US $10-12 billion — about
three to four per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) because of damages to the
environment and the natural habitat." According to him, rising sea-levels will also
affect India. "Around 23 million Indians in the eastern coast comprising West Bengal
and Orissa will have to abandon homes because of the rise in sea-levels."8
Whenever there is rise of one-metre in sea-levels, seven per cent of the population in Goa
will be adversely affected, and there will be damages to the tune of Rs 8,100 crore.
Beaches like Calangute, Miramar and Colva will be washed away.9 In Maharashtra, over 13
lakh people are at risk due to rising sea-levels. The cost of damages for Mumbai, the
business capital of India, is estimated to be Rs 2,28,700 crore.10 The country's icescape
is changing, with the Gangotri glacier receding by 500 metres, and the Ganga's average
temperature is now up by one degree centigrade.11 The melting of the
Himalayan glaciers would mean less water in major rivers like the Ganga, the Indus and the
Brahmaputra, affecting even the hydro-power stations which are dependent on the melting of
glaciers.
Ripped
apart |
 |
Floods. Cyclones. Droughts. Famines.
Orissa has them all. The monsoon of 2001 saw the worst ever flood recorded in Orissa, with
25 of the 30 districts being inundated with water. Bhubaneswar, which once had a forest
cover of about 70 per cent before 1960, today has only one per cent of the total area in
tree cover.1
2001 was also the year of the worst droughts in Orissa, with more than 11 million people
dying, and the economic loss due to crop damage running into more than 600 crore. The
coastal area of Orissa experienced a heat wave in 1998 that killed around 1500 people.The capital Bhubaneswar has a mean temperature of above 40°C
— which is comparable to Sambalpur district located in the interior. The year 1999
saw two cyclones hitting the state in quick succession, affecting more than 15 million
people, and devastating around 17,000 square kilometre of agricultural land. The state
today accounts for 15-22 per cent of malaria cases in the country and 40-50 per cent
malaria related deaths.2 |
References
1. Anon 2001, Bhubaneswar
faces hottest summer ever, in The Asian Age, New Delhi, April 30
2. Anon 2002, Climate change
and Orissa, Factsheet, published by Society for Environmental Communication,
New Delhi. |
The extreme weather conditions and the heat waves
experienced in various parts of India have lead to clear indications that climates are
changing. India has been facing a drought for three consecutive years. Kashmir no longer
experiences the fifth season of sont (spring), which used to last for 30-45
days during March-April. It now becomes warm in early February. Warmer climates have also
resulted in the quicker melting and retreat of glaciers. With climate change affecting the
bird population and causing a decline of butterflies in the entire Himalayan region, it is
mosquitoes that swarm the areas today. Skin diseases and infections are now more common in
the children of this area.12
Orissa is another classic example of how climate change has played havoc with its people
and land (see box: Ripped apart).
Compared to 39°C in April 2002, Delhi in April 2003 is witnessing a summer of 41°C
and the season has just begun. The year 2002 saw more than 1,100 people dying due to the
heat waves sweeping the whole of India, with Andhra Pradesh reporting around 1,000 deaths.
Vijaywada had the worst summer in 96 years, Darjeeling also recorded high mercury levels
and Kochi in Kerala witnessed weekly changes in the climate.13,14
Heat affects almost all the body systems. A 2°C rise in temperature can well double
the number of heat waves across the world.15 R K Singh, Lecturer, Civil
Engineering Group, Birla Institute of Technology and Science (BITS), Pilani, says,
"Temperature change may have an impact on several major categories of disease
including cardio-vascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory diseases."16 High
temperature makes it tough for the thermo regulatory system of the body to maintain the
equilibrium temperature of the body. Therefore, cardio-vascular and stroke deaths are
likely to be major contributors to any excess mortality due to global warming.17
Conversely, a potential health benefit of warmer global temperatures could be fewer
cold-related deaths, as winters become milder. Yet, experts believe that the decrease in
mortality will be negligible as compared to the increase in mortality resulting from
global warming; studies indicate that higher mortality is generally associated with heat
waves than cold spells.18 |
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